Freakonomics » New Freakonomics Radio Podcast: “The Folly of Prediction”

A very entertaining and insightful podcast about why predicting the future for the economy, or sports, or politics, is, well, pretty pointless. This podcast describes one of the fundamental tenets underlying the 4 x 14 Portfolio concept: the future is unknowable. Since that’s true, it’s a waste of time, money and emotional energy trying to guess which investment (or industry or economy or product) will be hot (or cold!) over the next however many months. Instead, investing in many different types of investments/assets yields a better chance of earning a decent rate of return over time (that’s my prediction). See my earlier post on the 4 x 14 Portfolio for more info.

One of the best (funniest) illustrations of the folly of predicting the future in this podcast: a young turkey on a turkey farm is fed by the farmer every day. The turkey comes to expect (predict) that food will be provided daily. And then one day comes the axe before Thanksgiving…

Freakonomics » New Freakonomics Radio Podcast: “The Folly of Prediction”.


About Mike Wilson

Michael L. Wilson, MBA, CFP®, CRC®, is the owner of Integrity Financial Planning. Prior to founding Integrity in 1998, he worked for two years as a faculty member at the College for Financial Planning in Denver, training other financial advisors. Mike has 10 years of experience in the mutual fund industry, having worked with Fidelity Investments and Invesco Mutual Funds. He holds an MBA in Finance from Baylor University. Learn more about his work at
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